Future Energy Trends

This 3 day course concentrates on a review and analysis of energy trends over the next 20 years. While predicting future energy trends can be fraught with uncertainties, attention is given to reviewing and analysing a variety of key market drivers, applying sensitivities and discussing probable outcomes. This programme features: Global growth trends: population, affluence and economic performance Crude oil, natural gas and coal market trends The development and growth of alternative energy sources; renewables, nuclear and hydroelectricity Impact of the non-conventional fuels Non-conventional oil and gas; oil sands and shales, shale gas and coal bed methane The future roles of NOCs and IOCs The peak oil issue Transportation trends, technical developments- hybrids, EVs and fuel cells Hydrogen as a fuel Carbon prices, legislation and trading Geopolitics and impact on energy markets Who should attend Oil and gas professionals Energy executives Corporate planners in energy companies Equity fund managers Government agencies Investment bankers Ministries Pension fund managers Benefits of attending Comprehensive review of current and forecast energy trends Understanding of comparative energy cost projections Strategic positioning in developing energy markets Course overview Energy markets in the first part of the 21st century will continue to be impacted by major political, economic, environmental and technical challenges. This 3-day course is focused on examining the developing energy trends that are anticipated over the next 20 years and is designed to inform delegates of current facts, future options, opportunities, risks and likely outcomes over this period. The full range of energy markets are examined and reviewed. The largest energy markets will continue to be the fossil fuels; crude oil, natural gas and coal. These markets will continue to dominate well into the 2030s. However, all forecasts indicate that the non-carbon energy alternatives that comprise nuclear, hydroelectric and renewables will continue to develop and eventually supplant fossil fuels in energy markets. Costs and prices of energy categories, both current and forecasted, are compared and contrasted. This course involves delegates interactively in short exercises, quizzes and discussion of forecasts and their sensitivities. The course has appeal to attendees from both technical and nontechnical backgrounds. However, emphasis is given to the commercial and economic drivers that will impact the energy markets. The key activities, processes and terms are presented in clear and jargon-free language that will enable attendees to gain a rapid understanding of the fundamental issues affecting energy trends. The topics are reviewed using PowerPoint presentations, discussions and handout notes that will reinforce your understanding. 'It was a very nice interactive course' - Kuwait Petroleum Corporation
Day 1 Overview, Fossil Fuels, Environmental Policies and Legislation The state of play Energy markets in 2013 Supply and demand Market sectors Volatile commodity prices Current investment climate for energy projects Challenges to 2035 Global GDP growth Global population growth Increasing affluence in the Non-OECD countries Political issues- volatile and rising commodity prices for all energy sources Rate of uptake of the renewable, non-carbon alternatives The limitations of fossil fuels Reserves life indices Decreasing finite resources Peak oil production Environmental Issues Crude oil markets Changing make-up of the barrel Refining challenges Changing product requirements and specification Price volatility Future demands Natural gas markets Market sector growth Globalisation of gas markets Gas–to–power markets Monetising/ commercialising remote gas Coal markets Existing market patterns Reduced demand in OECD markets? Future growth of demand in non-OECD Drivers for international markets to 2030 Environmental legislation The post-Copenhagen status OECD and non-OECD contrasts Carbon taxes Future course of carbon markets & emissions trading The cap and trade model EU-ETS Certified emission reductions (CERs) Carbon credits & joint implementation with developing economies Day 2 Strategies to 2035- Government Actions and Policies, IOCs, NOCs, Geopolitics, the Non-Conventionals Government involvements & stakeholding on energy projects Contrast between host government and investor objectives Economic rent issues The changing structure of fiscal contracts Changing roles of the NOCs, IOCs and service companies Control of global reserves and production IOCs strategies from super majors to small caps. NOC characterisation and their differing strategies INOCs- NOCs investing outside their home countries Changing roles of service companies and contractual relationships Geopolitics Petroleum as a strategic commodity Energy security issues Resource nationalism, expropriation Global competition for finite fossil fuel resources Potential international chokepoints Non-conventional fuels Oil sands, shales, bitumen and ultra-heavy oil (UHO) Shale gas and coalbed methane GTL, DME and methanol Global impact of non-conventional petroleum Cost comparisons and implications Biomass Green Power generation Bioethanol and biodiesel markets Costs analyses and conservation challenges Day 3 The Non-Carbon Fuels: The Renewables, Hydrogen, Nuclear, Review of Recent Authoritative Energy Forecasts Renewables Description: wind, wave, tidal, geothermal and solar Investment climate for renewables Comparative costs Timelines for mass market commercialisation Barriers to entry Local energy solutions Combined heat & power (CHP) Heat pumps Microgeneration Hydrogen, fuel cells and engine developments Hydrogen as a direct energy source Impacts in the transportation markets Car hybrids The fuel cell and its likely development Nuclear power Anticipated market growth Investment needs Barrier to market growth Environmental issues; pros & cons Review of recent authoritative energy forecasts Presentation, review and discussion Course summary and close